Map and count is current as of 10/27/08. Presentation by Angelina, Britt, Chad, & Kyle.
- Obama / Biden –306
- McCain / Palin – 157
- Toss Up – 75
Each week between September 15 and November 4 (the election) Senior Current Issues will provide you an update on the progress of the 2008 Presidential Election. Each week at this site you will find a photo (USA Electoral Map in room #112) of the updated polling comparisons between Barack Obama and John McCain. Each week a different group of seniors will offer you a three to five minute podcast of where this election currently stands and the trends they see on the horizon. Student groups will provide a news article that they think will help you to better understand the dynamics of this election. All students are encouraged to listen to the podcast and read the article.
SCI students will offer a “what do you think” question that goes with the news article. All Senior Current Issues students must do the ensuing 20 point blog. All other students may choose to answer the question as an extra credit blog assignment (5 pts max.)
All electoral votes come from estimates located on Real Clear Politics.com Remember polls are only estimates of how people may vote. Until Nov 4 nobody really knows the outcome of this election.
Podcast – click podcast. Go to Real Clear Politics while you listen. Podcast coincides with photo of map in room 112, located at the top of this post. Special Note the podcast does not work in Firefox browser.
News Article – New York Times – “Do Polls Lie About Race?”
Question – Describe in detail exactly what “The Bradley Effect” is. How do you feel “The Bradley Effect” will impact this election? Or will it have no effect at all because issues like the economy trump race?
Postings for the question must be made by 7:00 PM Friday of the week in question.
Podcast: (95% / A) Creative! The musical addition was great. Nicely done. Info was solid – moving across the country and sharing of responsibility good too. All around good job.
Article / Question: (95% / A-) Very good article. I think it got people thinking. And it certainly introduced the concept of the Bradley effect to people who did not know what it was all about. Good choice. Question works.
Presentation: (97%) Very very good presentation. Questions and answers – good. Took us around the country. I think we are ready to see this election play out…with your thoughts as a final prep.
Overall Grade: (96% / A) – Well done guys. The music, the presentation, the topic (Bradley Effect). I think you’ve given us a great send off to election day.
Check the category “08 ELECTION – The News” for more news about the candidates and the Election.
Great Job! It seems that the commercial spots have been doing their job in the close states. Do you think that campaign advertising as a whole should be kept equal (money and time)? Do you feel that the candidates use their money and time to promote their policies and issues? Should this be mandated?
Thank you so much Mr. Lowry – we appreciate the support!
The Bradley Effect is named after Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles from 1973 to 1993. In 1982, the race for governor of California, polls predicted that he would win by a landslide. When the actual election results came in, he lost by a slim margin. The Bradley Effect is a theory that when people are being polled that they might lie to the pollsters because they don’t want to be seen as bigoted. There is a theory that it may also have something to do with the race of the pollsters too. When talking to someone of your own race, it could have an effect on you and you might be more inclined to tell the truth, or more inclined to lie.
I think that The Bradley Effect could have a huge impact on this years election. Especially when the polls now predict a six point lead for Obama, and pollsters have concluded racial bias will cost him six points on election day. I think that people today still have that fear of admitting the truth and still have some racist tendencies.
14 of 20 – C / There’s a whole lot more going on in that article Myranda. Nice start dig in.
Well Done! We’re covering the election in my 8th grade Social Studies class, so I appreciate the information about the projected winners in each state. My students will find the Real Clear Politics an interesting site as the election draws nearer. It will also help me teach them about the electoral college and how the popular vote doesn’t always predict a winner. Keep up the good work!
Thanks Mr. Holmberg – Real Clear Politics is a great sight. Stick with it thru the election…and check in with us on Tuesday Election day.
Since I visited your blog last week, I had to return again, but this time with my 4th grade class. The 4th graders stood up when they heard your opening remarks, “Will the real presidential candidates, please stand up.” You definitely caught their attention. We have been studying how the electoral college works, so your message and the maps were supportive and informative. OUE just participated in a national student mock election. Obama received about 76% of the votes with McCain around 22%. Ralph Nader had a showing of about 1% of the vote. Thanks to Mrs. Brooks for registering our school for the mock election. The students were able to cast their vote and see their results. We even discussed ballot errors and misunderstandings and how that affects the vote.
Mr. Wood: My 4th grade students laughed at the quote, “I am awake.” Please send us an e-mail explanation. We’d love to hear from you.
Hello Mrs. Verge’s 4th grade class. This is Mr. Wood. I will send you all a little podcast on why we call it what we call it – until then – thank you all for listening in to our podcast – we’ll have two this week – one on Monday before the Election / and one on Tuesday after the election. You all are welcome to post on our sight anytime that you want to. Thanks again! We’ll see you all soon. Tell your teachers to VOTE!
First of all I want to say it is great to see the teachers getting involved with our blog and I want to respond to Mr. Lowry in saying that the candidates probably should have to spend only a certain equal amount of money on the election because right now our country, in my opinion, is being corrupted by promises made by candidates to lobbyists.
In response to the question, the Bradley Effect is simple it is when because a person of another race is running people tend to say they are going to vote for them in the polls because they do not want to sound racist, but come election day they vote for the other candidate instead. I hope the Bradley Effect does not come into effect on this election. If people are that worried that other people will think they are raciest by voting for the white representative then they are voting for the wrong reasons. Our vote should be based on the issues despite what other people tell you and how other people will think about you. I believe that it will not come into effect on this race now more people are accepting of race than at that time, and those that are racist are much more open about it and do not mind telling the pollsters about it.
15 of 20 C / Nice start Tyler, but I’d really like to see you digging in hard to the article…it takes on the issue indepth.
Question – Describe in detail exactly what “The Bradley Effect” is. How do you feel “The Bradley Effect” will impact this election? Or will it have no effect at all because issues like the economy trump race?
Bradley effect in brief is the idea that in polls voters often do not tell the truth about who they will really vote for on election day when the candidate is a person of another race because they do not want to be categorized as a racist. On election day they vote different than how they answered the poll questions.
It will not have an effect on the 2008 election, Obama will win the election in the electoral college by a good margin. The polls as you described them seem close in totals. I do think McCain will win Arizona, despite the change you describe and the fact that he won Arizona in the One Vote Channel One election.
THANK YOU Mr. Goodrich we’ll see you again on Monday November 3. We really appreciate your input!
The article on the Bradley Effect is an interesting read. I am always intrigued by the desire of pollsters and politicians in general to try to measure the truth of people’s intentions and beliefs through the use of surveys. Surveys, polls, statistics, and data cannot ever truly represent what a person believes or how a person will vote. There are too many variables. Is it the race of the person surveyed, is it the race of the person of the survey, could it be the socioeconomic status or the level of education of the person surveyed, or could it be that they didn’t have lunch that day so they were in a bad mood and decided to be flippant with their responses to the pollster that calls during dinner? Regardless, reading a poll is like reading a Magic 8 ball, will the Bradley Effect influence the presidential election? The Magic 8 ball says “not likely.”
The Magic 8 ball? That’s how you made it through college isn’t it? Thanks for stopping by…we’ll see you again on Monday November 3
Describe in detail exactly what “The Bradley Effect” is. How do you feel “The Bradley Effect” will impact this election? Or will it have no effect at all because issues like the economy trump race?
The Bradley Effect (less commonly known as the Wilder effect) is based on a theory that people will say that they are voting for one candidate; possibly because of race, and then vote for the other candidate. It is said that they change their mind simply because they do not want to appear narrow-minded or prejudiced.
I think that this will somewhat effect this years election. I think a lot of people think about the “what if’s” and other things dealing with race about Barack Obama. I also think that if he really proves to be true to himself, that he won’t have to worry about what will happen on Election Day.
THANKS for joining us Jessica! You are always welcome on the Buddha blog.
The Bradley effect started with Tom Bradley. Tom was the mayor of Los Angeles he was running for governor but he lost. It was a surprise because pollsters put him in the lead but on voting day they said that the voters lied to the pollsters about their support for an African American. Learning about that you wonder how many people today are lying about liking Barack Obama.
It could really effect this year’s election. Obama is in the lead right now but on November 4 if the people that said yes say no because of his race then he will not win the election thus not becoming the president. You really have to think that the civil rights movement was not that long ago and yet still some people don’t like the idea of an African American running the country.
But people still have to look at the issue. I was recently setting in the hall during lunch and a kid came up to me and seen my Obama sticker in my locker. He said to me that most people are voting for Obama because he is black. He then said that if he could vote he wouldn’t because of his gun policy. As you can figure he was a hunter who didn’t agree with Obama’s gun policy. What I’m saying is that race, and the issues they support affect people choices.
15 of 20 C+ / Agreed. But how much? What about economy? Do you think it will affect this election?
Great job again all! Next week should be interesting. Do you plan on continuing your news casts on other key issue in the world after the election is done?
Thanks Rebecca! We’ll be posting on Monday Nov 3 and Wednesday Nov 5. So you can get the pre election news and the post election news and then we are all going to REST! and then who knows? Thanks for stopping by AGAIN
The Bradley Effect is a theory that, when polled, individuals may say that they support a certain candidate, usually a candidate of color, just as not to appear racist or bigoted. This theory is named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. When the polls of the gubernatorial race showed him with a landslide victory, many considered him a shoe in for the governor’s seat. However, when the results came in, many were shocked (or not shocked) to see that he had actually lost by a slim margin… not exactly the land-slide victory he expected.
How can we not think that this will affect the presidential election? There are so many parallels between Mr. Bradley’s race and Mr. Obama’s race. Firstly, they are both black… secondly, both have been shown to have a fair lead in the polls… but, we may be surprised to see that Obama could actually lose this race… much in the same way Mr. Bradley lost the California race for Governor.
On the Economy. Though this is a huge issue in this election–perhaps large enough to have single-handedly propelled Obama’s campaign into the stratosphere–we cannot think that logical thought process is going to govern this election.
When we look between healthy eating and un-healthy eating including hamburgers, French fries, pizza, and soda, it is obvious that the healthy diet is the no-brainer; however, most American’s still continue to eat incredibly unhealthy foods. When it comes to cars, despite the skyrocketing fuel prices and over-the-top emissions of SUV’s, many American’s still purchase trucks and SUV’s religiously.
This goes to prove that, even though one option is noticeably better than another, we may still illogically choose the poorer option based on purely primal and non-sensical criteria.
This absolutely applies to this election…
In the end, Obama is not going to be running against McCain, but the closet racism that still pervades much of the United States.
We can expect a Bradley Effect… all Obama needs is a large enough lead to trump his race… something no logical thought process can.
19 of 20 – A / One thought on your post. 1982 – that was 26 years ago, I was just a kid – it was a different world. Is Bradley Obama? I don’t know. As time goes by we seem to further dilute issues like the Bradley effect. I do agree with you that this race is a referendum on Obama…whether or not closet racism will be a factor we’ll have to wait and see.
* Extra Credit*
The Bradley Effect is the name given to the event of a black candidate running for a elected position in which this candidate seems to have an overwhelming lead over their opponent only to find themselves losing the election they are running in. Basically what happens is people say they are going to vote for the black candidate and when it finally comes down to it, they vote for the other guy instead. This happened to Tom Bradley in 1982 when he ran for governor and lost despite the strong feeling of confidence that he would win. Newspaper headlines had already called him the winner.
Now, do I think the Bradley Effect will play a role in the results of this election? Possibly. I think people underestimate the number of racist people in this country, which will influence the winner of this election, it might not be a huge influence, but it could have a small effect, which could mean a lot, especially in this election. I also think Obama’s popularity and the lead he has in the polls sounds all too familiar to Tom Bradley’s election.
If Obama were to lose this election I think it would go down in history as one of the biggest upsets of an election and for this reason, I don’t think the Bradley Effect will play a huge role in the result of this election. If anything, I think the influence it will have on the election is minimizing the lead Obama has over McCain, which probably won’t be enough for a McCain victory.
However, WE SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE POLLS. Honestly, I don’t even pay attention to them if I don’t have to. Whoever wins November 4th wins! Let’s not worry too much about who’s winning the polls right now, because it’s not going to matter in 5 days when the winner is announced!
10 PTS EXTRA – Nice job – thorough – what about the reverse Bradley effect? As for your love of the polling process. if we didn’t have polls what would I do with all my free time?
Extra Credit
The Bradley effect is where the media thinks one candidate will win by a landslide but yet loses the election by a close margin
In this election though I do not think will have a big impact if you look at the polls it is pretty even. Even with the toss up states. I hope people don’t vote on race because it should be beyond that single point it should about what they stand up for and what they say they will do for us. But now I think that people (at least some) have gotten over the fact of race. And very few actually go beyond 30 second commercials and dug into the real topics. That’s what I hope.
1 PT EXTRA – you haven’t brought the article into this eval hardly at all. If you want Extra credit you need to dig in!
The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.
I think people are having a hard time picking because now its almost election day and many of us and thinking who can really run this U.S. the right way.
NO EXTRA PTS You can’t just cut and paste and call it your opinion david.
The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.
I think people are having a hard time picking because now its almost election day and many of us and thinking who can really run this U.S. the right way.
NO EXTRA PTS You can’t just cut and paste and call it your opinion david.
The “Bradley Effect” was first thought up and officially given a name in 1982, when Tom Bradley lost in the gubernatorial election. Although the polls showed that Tom Bradley was in the lead and many newspapers announced him as the winner. The “Bradley Effect” is when election polls predict a certain candidate will win but in the end they do not. This usually happens to the African-American candidate due to people lying when asked on the survey. Whether it is people feeling more socially acceptable to say they are voting for the black candidate or at least that race doesn’t play a part in their vote.
I think when we decided if this “Bradley Effect” will play a role in the election we have to think about how many times the U.S. has had cases like this. There have been about ten cases that the “Bradley Effect” might play a role but only three of four when the “Bradley Effect” had an affect. The last election was in 1989 when the minority candidate was predicted to win and lost. Since then we have seen multiple minority candidates win elections including Colin Powell. I really don’t think that it will have an affect on this election because many new voters are out voting and they are more open minded. Another reason I don’t see the “Bradley Effect” playing a roll in this election is because we’ve never had a black presidential candidate, so we don’t have any polls to go off of when we look for the errors.
15 of 20 C+ / I don’t understand your last statement. Colin Powell has never run for office. But – you make some valid points – which would be so much more valid if you really jumped into the article and used it in assessing the situation. Quote it!
The Bradley effect is named after the mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who lost his race for governor, the assumption being that voters lied about their support for their black candidate. Even the last minute polls predicted a large victory, but in the end he lost. This theory is basically saying that there is no real way to tell who is going to win on November 4th until November 4th, and in situations like this, the polls could be totally off. I think that the Bradley effect will impact this election. I’m sure that there are a lot of undecided voters, and when it comes down to it, I don’t think that all of them are going to be able to vote for Obama because he is a black man. It’s very irritating in situations like these, because the two candidates have two very different views on almost everything, and instead of people taking these views into consideration, they judge by the color of their skin, and I think this might hurt Obama on Tuesday.
15 of 20 – C+ / It might…talk more about the history of the Bradley effect. Dig in deary. You have some good points – but I’d like to see more good points.
The Bradley effect is when the last minute polls predict that a candidate will win by a large margin, but instead the black candidate loses or just barely wins. I think that the Bradley Effect may have an effect on this election, because the race has been close and polls are only polls.
This race has been really close throughout the entire time, and polls have switched in large amounts. The polls have switched from McCain leading, to Obama barely leading, to Obama leading largely, and to Obama leading a little. I think that these changes show that in a short amount of time any change can occur.
Also, the polls are just estimates. I feel like sometimes we place too much emphasis on what the polls say. They are no completely accurate, and they don’t represent all voters. Especially in this race where new voters are expected to show up in large numbers. The new voters are often not accounted for in the polls. This inaccuracy could explain why a candidate loses when the polls show that they are expected to win.
Although the article seems to point at race as the source for the Bradley Effect, I believe that in this election the closeness of the entire race, and the fact that polls are just estimates is why the Bradley Effect may occur.
15 of 20 – C+ / Economy? Health Care? War? The issues? What do you think, will these have a greater impact? I’d like to see you dig in a bit deeper to the article itself. As for your fear of the polls of the actual effect – Tuesday night will be very very interesting to watch.
The Bradley Effect is when a black candidate is winning in a land slide during polling times, but when election come around they either lose or win by very little (which the picture on the article was amazing how they man held the white vote behind his back that actually explains the Bradley Effect perfectly). I think of course that it will have an effect on some people, and the polls aren’t completely accurate especially with all the new younger voters and different minorities voting this election. I think that the race will be closer then people expect it because I don’t think the current changes in the southern states will stick. With all the younger voters, and the current economic problem I highly doubt that Senator Obama will lose the presidential race. So I do think that America will get over the fact that Obama is a colored man and in this day an age the Bradley Effect will not have that big of an impact in the end. Obama is the better candidate hands down he will win.
(spelling -5 pts) 17 – 5 = 12 of 20 D / You just about take this thing where it needs to go – ” I think that the race will be closer than people expect it because I don’t think the current changes in the southern states will stick.” And then you STOP! Here is where you dig in and take on the Bradley Effect – what role will it have there! Also what do you think about the reverse Bradley Effect? Just curious.
The Bradley effect is pretty much an effect on how race plays a key role in electing a different race other than white. The Bradley effect is named after Tom Bradley who is the mayor of Los Angeles, lost his race for governor, the assumption being that voters lied to pollsters about their support for an African-American.
Like the article says these factors of race could produce an unforseen Obama landslide when the actual election results come out. I totally agree with that. The polls cannot judge on what a person is thinking about race and how racist they are. People can like Obamas plans for the issues but since he is black many people will not vote for him. As sad as it sounds it is certainly true. The article also talks about how people have been talking about the Bradley effect since 1982, where even last-minute polls predict a wide margin of victory for a person of different race, yet the candidate still seems to lose, or win by a very small margin.
So I don’t believe this election is going to be any different with racism than in the past. The Bradley effect will most certainly be a factor in Obamas campaign. I strongly believe he will lose many voters just because they are racist and Obama is African-American. I agree with the article that the polls can’t tell how a person feels about Obama being the first African-American president. Many people won’t vote for him that say they will because of his race. I am not saying he is going to lose the election he is just not going to win by a large margin like some of the polls have. I don’t care what anybody says, this country is still racist and it probably will never change. Bottom line is the Bradley effect will play an important role in this election.
16 of 20 – B / OK – Question? 1982 to 2008 is 26 years. Has anything changed in that time that would lessen the Bradley Effect? What about the issues – what role do they have in all of this? sadly, however I do agree that racism will play a larger roll than people think – just how much I am unsure.
The Bradley Effect is when people say they will vote for a particular candidate to come off as they are not racist, but in turn they switch their vote privately to a different candidate. Example, people may say they are voting for Obama and regardless to his great plans for our economy and what not, they do not care because deep down they do not believe we should have an African American president, so in return they will vote for McCain.
I think that in the beginning it had an impact on the election because many people were skeptical to having a black president with racism.
1. Now everyone is much more in touch with the issues and we know that Obama had better plans then McCain.
2. McCain has been compared to Bush and many people are not in agreement with how the bush administration handles our nation
3. Obama has already been through the process of getting the nomination and beat Hilary Clinton
Obama has well shown America he is capable to handle our country and he is so smart. Many people do not care about race, which is not an issue right now, the issue is our World…how this mess is going to be solved and we need to leave Bush accountable for the debt he has shoved in our faces. Change needs to occur now and Obama has made it very clear that it will occur.
In conclusion I do not think the Bradley Effect will have a big impact on the election, however you will always have a few people that are the Monkey see, Monkey Do…If their parents are in the household telling them and teaching them bad habits then eventually they will pick up on them, so lets hope most of America has moved on from childish games and grow a brain to realize our world can come to an end if we do not step up to the plate and take some action.
21 of 20 – A+ / VERY GOOD JOB Brittany! You’ve accounted for issues that nobody else (as of yet) has – the idea that some of this stuff sifted itself in the Hillary Clinton campaign…you know until I read your post that hadn’t crossed my mind. Good thinking. You’ve also addressed the economy and Obama’s intelligence. But you’re right there is still a lot of Monkey see – Monkey Do . nicely done.
The Bradley Effect is when an African American candidate who is running for office loses or wins by a slight margin when they were projected to win by a wide margin.
I don’t think the Bradley Effect will play a role in this year’s election because with the economy and the war race isn’t the main factor that voters are taking into consideration. I believe Obama has such a wide margin because of his economic and other plans, not because people say they are supporting an African American candidate.
13 of 20 D+ / Kaylee – I watched you on that Iraq issue tear it up – you are capable of a whole lot more detail and insight. Dig in.
Well, the Bradley Effect is really quite simple. It basically is when people vote for a candidate with a different race on a poll, or claim they are going to vote for so and so. Then on election day vote for the other candidate in hoping that nobody will find out. Fortunately, I Chad Raymond Barnaby do not see the Bradley Effect coming into play in the 2008 election.
Barack Obama is not just some random guy who decided he was going to run for president. He has already beat out the unstoppable force of Hilary Clinton to be the democratic nominee. Granted, America is still a nation with many racist views, but I still do not think that people are worried to vote for Obama because of the color of his skin.
As Americans, I believe that we have came together as a nation on September 11th after the attacks on the Pentagon, and we have come together in 2008 when we all say that we need a change. The Bush Administration has screwed the United States over and we need to turn down a different road. John McCain has had a good run, but the unpreventable fire in Obama’s stomach is just too stoked to be put out. Barack Obama is just getting more and more liked and will be very difficult to overcome on election day. This election is way bigger than it has been in many years due to our economic situation. Therefore, I give both John McCain and Barack Obama credit for deciding that they would take on that role and make us the nation that once was the glory land.
However, Barack Obama is just way too smart and way to much of a people person to be turned down as a president. Even John McCain’s home state of Arizona is starting to realize what a great president Barack Obama would be. Perhaps John McCain could have been president years ago , but in my eyes, his time has run out.
16 of 20 – B / Some interesting rhetoric here Chad Raymond Barnaby…the unpreventable fire in Obama’s stomach – is certainly unique. Coming together as a nation on Sept 11? Do you think that still holds here – I don’t know. I’m sorry CRB – but “glory land”? That’s pretty strong stuff. Anyhow – good insight on the Hillary Clinton deal – I think that is underrated here – and you have made a point that Obama may have overcome the racial issue. We will see.
The Bradley effect is named after the former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982. The effect is supposed to be the result of pollsters not being completely truthful of supporting an African American in the polls so the end is that the candidate doesn’t win, or does but by a smidge of votes.
I feel that race will have some sort of an impact but won’t rule the nations thoughts. I hear stories from my classmates about the people they meet who won’t vote for Barack because of the color his skin and how he is “Muslim” and etc. This puts fear, easily, into many American’s hearts. So much of this nation is scared that a terrorist will be running our country. Though he has been an easy target for such remarks. Racism is still present in America. I haven’t heard people talk like that about an African American in my life. I feel that our country is a disgraced place. Why must we be naïve in regards to understanding someone’s intelligence and think it is okay to support someone just because he is white? If that is the reason you are voting for John McCain, then you are putting more and more burdens upon your own shoulder just because you were scared to have a smart black man running our crumbling lives. I think, “How dare you question the ability of a person who is capable of anything. How dare you criticize someone for being who they are, and who has suffered, just like you and who wants to fight for you?!” Barack Obama was raised with a mother who was single, alongside with grandparents. He has seen first hand the toll poverty and hardships have been on middle and lower class people. I feel that many need to start seeing what half of the nation is, that we have a chance at a change that will bring our world to a better place. So many people need to understand the issues. They need to know both candidates policies. They need to understand what they are getting into. I know that I want to be educated on what my future president will offer me. This is my life, these policies coming into effect after the president is chosen will impact me on every level. I am getting ready for college, to educate, to travel, to change the world, and I need to know what I am going to be offered.
16 of 20 – B / I feel like I should stand up and cheer – It’s the NEW CHARITY! I love your insight on Obama and how important you see his role in YOUR world. However, a majority of your post – doesn’t take on the issue at hand. You are very passionate in your opinions – will other people feel the same way – about Obama? Do you think your thinking is mainstream? Nice emotion!
*EXTRA CREDIT*
A guy by the name of Tom Bradley is probably not familiar to a lot of Americans unless you live in Los Angeles, California or you know your history on mayors. He is a pretty important man when elections come around. Tom Bradley was an African American mayor of Los Angeles from 1973 to 1993, but when he ran for governor of California in 1982, there was a little bit of confusion of why he didn’t win. The reason there was confusion was that in the early polls he was predicted to win by an incredible margin, and then lost when the real election results were in. This was later described as the Bradley effect, which was named after the Los Angeles mayor.
The Bradley effect is a theory that when people are asked to poll about the election, they often lie to the pollsters. For example, if there is a black candidate and a white candidate the people will often say they’re voting for the black candidate because they don’t want to be seen as prejudiced. Therefore, when the actual voting occurs the truth comes out, and nobody knows who exactly they voted for. This causes the results to shift a little bit from the early polls, which causes confusion to people because the candidate that was expected to win ends up losing. This is known as the Bradley effect which was named after Tom Bradley after it happened to him.
This is a big issue when you think of today’s election. It looks like Barack Obama is going to win by a landslide; however, there is a possibility that the Bradley effect could come into play when November 4th rolls around. So I think that this could possibly effect the election of today, but racism isn’t as big as it was back in 1982 when this happened to Tom Bradley. Although there is still a few prejudice people in the United States today. Meanwhile, I don’t think there is enough to change the outcome of this election in the aspect of false polling. I think if Obama was to lose it’s going to come down to the winning of the toss up states and sealing the deal with their committed states.
8 PTS EXTRA – You do a GREAT job of laying out the Bradley Effect. And then when it comes to Obama and the effect you bounce back and forth like yo yo – as for the toss up states – that is probably the place where the Bradley effect might most come into play. So what exactly are we left with – Will it or will it not – have a big role – what do you think?
Hey Mr. Wood I was just wondering why don’t you respond to some of the questions after the blog is closed. I think it would be cool if people could see you answer some of the questions since you read the article anyway. I don’t know it’s just an interesting idea.
Torrey, I can barely keep up with the stuff when the blog is open. I’m buried!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do the News article this week…I think it’s pretty cool.
The Bradley Effect was named after Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles in 1982. This effect took place due to the poles being off by so much and it stated that Tom Bradley was favored to win by a land slide. The Bradly effect could effect the election a little bit with some people being afraid that if they do not vote for Obama they will be considered racist. But Obama has a better stand on most of the issues. so within all of this hopefully the Bradley Effect will not matter in this election.
12 of 20 D – Eddie dig in.
First of all, I want to say thank you to everyone who has been posting. Especially teachers, it really means a lot to read your posts. Oh, and thanks Mrs. Case… but where’s the smiley face?
Now to answer the question, The Bradley Effect refers to a supposed tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his or her white opponent. This effect was named after Tom Bradley, where in 1982 he, an African-American was suspected to win but he lost narrowly.
And it is this, the Bradley Effect that has so many Democrats and Obama supporters very nervous as election day approaches. Although the polls show he is in the lead with electoral votes, the polls can’t be trusted. There is the fear that people were afraid to appear bigoted and lied to pollsters to be viewed as more socially acceptable.
However I believe that the Bradley Effect will not happen or have an effect on Nov. 4th. There are too many differences and disparities between the two situations and there are so many things that make this presidential race unique.
#1 Look at the era. The Bradley Effect happened in 1982, we are now looking at an election 26 yrs later. Although I completely understand that racism still is an issue in our current society and country, the United States has become more progressive since then and more comfortable with the race issue.
#2 Young Voters. If young voters come out in large numbers then the Bradley Effect even if it did take place and there were people who lied to polls, it wouldn’t matter. The masses of you people which are more likely to answer surveys tend to favor Obama. Young voters need to make sure they get to the polls.
#3 There are other issues that trump race. The Economic Crisis, Deteriorating Foreign policy, 47 Million Americans without Health Care. Ultimately it will be these issues not race that will be the deciding factor. Who, regardless black or white will do everything in his presidential power to get this country back on its feet? That is the question that voters will ask themselves.
In the end, nothing is for certain until election day. We can only hope that bigotry and racism aren’t the leading motives for a vote. But that it is the concern for our country’s image in the global community, the economic security of our nation, and the future of our posterity.
“I have a dream… one day they will live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.”- MLK
21 of 20 – A+ / It’s nice to have you back…I trust it isn’t a temporary fling.
The Bradley effect is in reference to elections were the candidates are black and white, were polls are skewed because people are afraid that people will think that they’re making a decision based on race and might lie about who they are voting for. You don’t really no that the Bradley effect is taking place until after the election has taken place. If the Bradley effect is having an effect then it probably being overridden by the shape of the economy, Iraq, the effects of the Bush administration. Really the issues are so huge and are effecting people so much that they might not even be noticing race at all. Many times dire situations cause people to forget feeling s or preferences so that they can focus on the cause of the problem.
(spelling – 5pts) 17 – 5 =12/20 – D Pretty well said Nick. And you are right – nobody knows until election day – and maybe not even then.
Late of course, (that’s what you get for not watching the clock) but I think I owe an answer anyways.
The Bradley effect is a theoretical and psychological phenomenon where people respond to polls based on what they perceive as socially expectable, especially in terms of race. Now after you finish reading that for your third time, here’s a much easier explanation. In a nutshell, it means people lie to pollers about who they will vote for to avoid sounding biased because of their race. In 1982 Tom Bradley ran for mayor of Los Angeles, he was expected to win in the polls, but did not. He lost because those that were polled lied about their vote for Bradley, instead voting for the white candidate, because when they were asked on the phone they did not want to sound racist by saying they would vote for the white candidate over the black one.
When I first started to really listen to the election, and saw that a black man had the best chance yet to make it into the white house, I thought of two things. One was that Obama would never be elected because this country is far to racist, but as he began to pull ahead of Hillary Clinton, I started to see that was not the case. Clearly there are enough people in the U.S.A. that know race does not matter in a presidential candidate.
The second thing that I thought of was that he will be elected because young people will vote for him almost exclusively. This was my reasoning: We grow up learning quite a bit about the civil rights movement, we learn at a very young age the evils of racism. We learned about slavery, a big sore spot in our nation’s history. I think that, perhaps subconsciously, that voting for Obama is like making amends. Those of us that never saw those early days feel an obligation to not end up like our forerunners. Whites and blacks make a point to get along, even if we otherwise would not if they had the same skin color. We fear being a racist, and we fear being related to those ‘back-in-the-day folk” who thought segregation was a good idea. It’s as though if we vote for a black president, we get karma or we can smile and think “Wow, how nice of me to do that, I’m certainly not a racist.” When people see a young white voter on TV who argues that McCain is the better candidate, I think some people see this almost as the same thing as being racist. They don’t think this aloud, but it glances their minds for a few seconds. This article puts some facts behind my theory, stating that in polls people have shown a tendency to say they will vote based on their ethnicity. While this probably isn’t true for most people, it’s certainly true for me….perhaps I’m the racist one?
I think that, no, I know that race will have an effect on the election. Will it be big? Most likely not. A small but sizeable percentage might vote based on race, but that number will be only 1 or 2%. Again, sizeable, but wont matter unless the race is very close, which it may or may not be. I don’t see any reason why a person that just lost their home, or can’t pay for their medical bills, or can’t find a job, or who opposes the war in Iraq, or just plain think Bush is the worst thing to happen to America since rap music, would vote because Obama is black or because McCain is white.
10 / 2 = 5 PTS EXTRA Your posts are certainly insightful. I have never heard it put quite that way – that Bush was the worst thing to happen to America since rap music – I think maybe I’m one of those persons. Anyhow great insight. The medical bills, home losses, job losses, Iraq war all of it does seem that it might just trump racism – or maybe not. We will see. Keep posting! Keep thinking. You are awake! Next time post it on though – you won’t have your extra credit cut in half.
I listened to the podcast, but was unsure of which article was current. Was it the Bradley Effect article? Regardless, good podcast Angelina, Britt, Chad, and Kyle. Your voices were clear, and the analysis seems appropriate. Afterall, it seems that money does matter in this presidential race. The more money spent on ads, the better off the candidate is regardless of how biased the ads are…I wonder if this is what our forefathers had in mind when democracy was born?
Thank you so much for joining the VOTE – Mrs Swainston. We sincerely appreciate the kind words – and PLEASE join us on Monday th 3rd – and Wednesday the 5th – with our pre and post editions of the the VOTE! And don’t forget – TO VOTE! Even if you are still undecided when you pull the curtain. There’s no time limit.
Final Thought on this posting – We need to dig in a bit deeper on these blogs – Angelina, Britt, Corey, Kelly, Rachel – you all have really taken the subject on with vigor. We still have too many people skimming articles and summarizing feelings – I want to see you all really really dig into the meat of the article – use the article to summarize postions – and then hammer home your points with some passion. Otherwise we’ll be looking at a lot of C’s.
This isn’t me sucking up and trying to get you to change my grade, this is me being honest and explaining myself….because that’s what the NEW CHARITY does. :0)
I read my post and really looked at it. I see what your saying I think. I really touched light upon the fact that this nation isn’t an accepting place of a black president. I think by the time I ended my post, I forgot to mention that other factors were a key. I did however say that people do need to understand each candidate better. There isn’t an issue that trumps another. So when I say that race isn’t that much of a factor, it is, but I feel that I am only speaking for half of the nation. The other half that support Obama, I think they are looking at the top issues that are important: economy, healthcare, foreign policy, and the Iraq War. This is where the comment about the fact that you are only supporting John McCain because he’s white then you add more burdens comes in. It’s like this, you look at the issues that are most important to you, not to any one else, and then support the candidate who will do their best to voice your needs. Half of America is putting trust in someone when they don’t know what they believe. That is where the burdens come in. I would hate to support someone just because of this or that then to have that candidate come into presidency and everything that I believed in wouldn’t be voiced because that candidate believed in the opposite of everything that I do. So I guess in essence, race is a huge factor for that red middle section of the map. But it is important to keep in mind that other issues are being looked at, if not equally.
If people are simply going to vote based on the Bradley Effect, then they probably shouldn’t vote at all because this election shouldn’t be based on race and feeling racist if you don’t vote for a certain person. It should be based on what the candiates stand for and who would be better for our nation for the crisis that this country is facing right now. I hope that voters aren’t voting just because of a certain race. This country is in desprite need of economic change, so I don’t think that the voters will be voting based on race I believe that the people of this nation will vote based on who will suite this country the best and get us out of this hardship that our nation is facing right now.
The Bradley Effect is a theory that says people that are polled might lie and so then the polls will come out inaccurate because of the people being polled, not the people that create the poll. I think that there wasn’t an effect on the election turn out, and people that base their vote on skin color need to think about what is best for the country and think of people as equals and not black or white, male or female. Being racist or sexist restricts you from seeing things that are actually important like inflation or the war in Iraq.
The Bradley Effect is a theory that states that people won’t usually tell the truth when the pollsters ask who they are voting for. The case is usually in a match between a colored man and a white man. The people being polled will tell you that they are going to vote for the African-American to not sound racist, but when they go to vote, they vote for the white man. When people do this, it really makes people upset. I think that when people bring up color, as an issue, in the elections, then they are ignorant. They don’t look at the morals and efforts that the candidates have, but merely their skin color. They don’t look at what would better them or their economy, they look at the color. I think that people are scared of what may happen when a person of color enters the white house. There is no way to know if a colored candidate is good for our country unless we put one in charge. From this, I strongly believe that Barack Obama was the best man to represent colored people because he is very intelligent, he has a plan, and he wants what is good for the economy. The Bradley Effect did not effect the election at all; in fact, the polls were close to being exact this year. I am glad that people didn’t lie about who they were voting for and I respect anyone that told the truth, whether they were a McCain supporter or an Obama supporter. I look forward to having our new president, Barack Obama, in office in January.